Campaign math
Dear Hillary Clinton,
Assuming you continue to rack up superdelegates at your current rate (not a realistic assumption, as I think a large majority will fall to whomever wins the popular vote) - you can get a grand total of only 152 superdelegates, even if Florida and Michigan are seated.
You need 328 more delegates to win, so superdelegates aren't going to do it for you.
Okay, so say you continue to win pledged delegates at your current rate. Will that do it? 47% of the remaining unpledged delegates is only 101, so no. That won't do it for you either. (152+101 = 253) What percentage of remaining delegates would you need to win? 81%.
Considering that you didn't win your own state - or your husband's - or any other state - by that kind of margin, I'm thinking it's unlikely.
So how could you possibly win this election?
Oh, that's right. Florida! Michigan! Where you pledged not to campaign, as did all the other candidates, and then broke your promise. Where Obama, who kept his promise, wasn't even on the ballot (Michigan) and didn't campaign (Florida) as his party had asked him not to do. If you could get those states included, you might, and I repeat might, be able to pull this off. No wonder you changed your mind after the results were in and argued for seating the delegates! But that kind of back-gaming the system (however stupid this whole stripping-of-delegates and eight-month-long primary process may be, and I'm not saying it isn't) will ruin the Democratic Party for decades to come. Deep, deep rifts in the trust of the party base, is what I'm saying here. It's not worth it. Hell, if this gets gerrymandered into a Clinton victory through some vile combo of the Florida/Michigan clusterfuck and superdelegate in-politicking, I may leave the party myself and go Green, even though I've been a lifelong Democrat.
In any scenario, it's still more likely that Barack Obama, even pulling his usual 49% of the remaining superdelegates (145) and 53% of remaining unpledged delegates (minus Florida and Michigan) (116), would easily exceed the 176 he still needs to win. (145+116 = 261)
Stand down, Hillary. The longer we fight each other, the more lead time we give McCain in the race.
Assuming you continue to rack up superdelegates at your current rate (not a realistic assumption, as I think a large majority will fall to whomever wins the popular vote) - you can get a grand total of only 152 superdelegates, even if Florida and Michigan are seated.
You need 328 more delegates to win, so superdelegates aren't going to do it for you.
Okay, so say you continue to win pledged delegates at your current rate. Will that do it? 47% of the remaining unpledged delegates is only 101, so no. That won't do it for you either. (152+101 = 253) What percentage of remaining delegates would you need to win? 81%.
Considering that you didn't win your own state - or your husband's - or any other state - by that kind of margin, I'm thinking it's unlikely.
So how could you possibly win this election?
Oh, that's right. Florida! Michigan! Where you pledged not to campaign, as did all the other candidates, and then broke your promise. Where Obama, who kept his promise, wasn't even on the ballot (Michigan) and didn't campaign (Florida) as his party had asked him not to do. If you could get those states included, you might, and I repeat might, be able to pull this off. No wonder you changed your mind after the results were in and argued for seating the delegates! But that kind of back-gaming the system (however stupid this whole stripping-of-delegates and eight-month-long primary process may be, and I'm not saying it isn't) will ruin the Democratic Party for decades to come. Deep, deep rifts in the trust of the party base, is what I'm saying here. It's not worth it. Hell, if this gets gerrymandered into a Clinton victory through some vile combo of the Florida/Michigan clusterfuck and superdelegate in-politicking, I may leave the party myself and go Green, even though I've been a lifelong Democrat.
In any scenario, it's still more likely that Barack Obama, even pulling his usual 49% of the remaining superdelegates (145) and 53% of remaining unpledged delegates (minus Florida and Michigan) (116), would easily exceed the 176 he still needs to win. (145+116 = 261)
Stand down, Hillary. The longer we fight each other, the more lead time we give McCain in the race.
posted by The Stute Fish at 20:16
1 Comments:
Good letter...reminds me of another one I saw on an Oregon blog.
-Pete
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